Recently, PGCrosschecker.com released its Top 200 prospects for the 2012 amateur draft, and while there was only one Owl listed (Fr. 2B Michael Ratterree - No. 24), six Stanford Cardinal were recognized. Rice, of course, opens the 2010 season at Stanford Feb. 19-21.
This listing comes on the heels of a moderately heated debate following the release of the Owls' most recent class of recruits, a group that is sure to include several members of the Top 200 prospects for the 2013 draft (RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP/IF Connor Mason, RHP/OF Austin Kubitza, IF Dickie Thon, Jr.) should they not sign professional contracts next summer and enroll at Rice. The OG acknowledged that the Class of 2011 is by far his riskiest relative to the probability that some members, namely Taillon, might never don a Rice uniform. The OG, David Pierce, Mike Taylor and Pat Hallmark have earned their reputation as supreme cultivators of talent, an irrefutable fact supported by the program's current standing as one of the nation's best of the aughts and the eight first-round picks produced during that same span.
Whether or not the most recent signing class represents a slight change in philosophy, it appears as though Rice is aiming to close the perceived talent gap between itself and the programs it competes with for recruits. While the Rice staff has proven that it can develop modest prospects into All-Americans who sign seven-figure bonuses, it comes across as startling that Stanford, working with similar academic restrictions, could sign six times as many top prospects as Rice in a given year. No one would deny that Stanford has a greater national profile and stronger academic reputation, but Rice has been the superior program over the past decade. Sensational talent development has netted one national championship, but perhaps Rice needs an uptick in raw talent to pave the path to an elusive second national title.
Taillon, Mason, Kubitza and Thon represent that uptick. At last check, four is greater than one.
Pulled from the aforementioned list, here are the top prospects from the 2012 Draft the Owls will face in 2010:
1. Kenny Diekroeger, SS/3B, Stanford
4. Jacob Stewart, OF, Stanford
9. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
33. Tom Lemke, RHP, Nebraska
38. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State
46. Josh Urban, RHP, Texas
49. Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M
62. Josh Elander, C/OF, TCU
67. Darnell Sweeney, SS, UCF
72. Justin Jones, LHP, California
86. Jonathan Walsh, C, Texas
95. Geoff Thomas, RHP, Southern Miss
96. Kyle McKenzie, RHP/SS, Tulane
106. Kyle Von Tungeln, OF, TCU
111. Kevin Chambers, 1B/LHP, Oklahoma State
113. Hoby Milner, LHP/OF, Texas
121. Chris Jenkins, RHP, Stanford
122. Dane Phillips, C, Oklahoma State
126. Garrett Cannizaro, SS, Tulane
134. Kurt Giller, RHP, Nebraska
139. Sam Wolff, RHP/SS, San Diego
147. Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M
156. Keifer Nuncio, RHP, Texas
159. Stephen Piscotty, RHP/IF, Stanford
170. John Wooten, 3B, East Carolina
186. Tony Renda, 2B/3B, California
196. Garrett Hughes, LHP, Stanford
This listing comes on the heels of a moderately heated debate following the release of the Owls' most recent class of recruits, a group that is sure to include several members of the Top 200 prospects for the 2013 draft (RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP/IF Connor Mason, RHP/OF Austin Kubitza, IF Dickie Thon, Jr.) should they not sign professional contracts next summer and enroll at Rice. The OG acknowledged that the Class of 2011 is by far his riskiest relative to the probability that some members, namely Taillon, might never don a Rice uniform. The OG, David Pierce, Mike Taylor and Pat Hallmark have earned their reputation as supreme cultivators of talent, an irrefutable fact supported by the program's current standing as one of the nation's best of the aughts and the eight first-round picks produced during that same span.
Whether or not the most recent signing class represents a slight change in philosophy, it appears as though Rice is aiming to close the perceived talent gap between itself and the programs it competes with for recruits. While the Rice staff has proven that it can develop modest prospects into All-Americans who sign seven-figure bonuses, it comes across as startling that Stanford, working with similar academic restrictions, could sign six times as many top prospects as Rice in a given year. No one would deny that Stanford has a greater national profile and stronger academic reputation, but Rice has been the superior program over the past decade. Sensational talent development has netted one national championship, but perhaps Rice needs an uptick in raw talent to pave the path to an elusive second national title.
Taillon, Mason, Kubitza and Thon represent that uptick. At last check, four is greater than one.
Pulled from the aforementioned list, here are the top prospects from the 2012 Draft the Owls will face in 2010:
1. Kenny Diekroeger, SS/3B, Stanford
4. Jacob Stewart, OF, Stanford
9. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
33. Tom Lemke, RHP, Nebraska
38. Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State
46. Josh Urban, RHP, Texas
49. Michael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M
62. Josh Elander, C/OF, TCU
67. Darnell Sweeney, SS, UCF
72. Justin Jones, LHP, California
86. Jonathan Walsh, C, Texas
95. Geoff Thomas, RHP, Southern Miss
96. Kyle McKenzie, RHP/SS, Tulane
106. Kyle Von Tungeln, OF, TCU
111. Kevin Chambers, 1B/LHP, Oklahoma State
113. Hoby Milner, LHP/OF, Texas
121. Chris Jenkins, RHP, Stanford
122. Dane Phillips, C, Oklahoma State
126. Garrett Cannizaro, SS, Tulane
134. Kurt Giller, RHP, Nebraska
139. Sam Wolff, RHP/SS, San Diego
147. Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M
156. Keifer Nuncio, RHP, Texas
159. Stephen Piscotty, RHP/IF, Stanford
170. John Wooten, 3B, East Carolina
186. Tony Renda, 2B/3B, California
196. Garrett Hughes, LHP, Stanford
I'm not sure if your title for the list is really accurate. It's the list of top prospects for the 2012 draft and since some guys (like the TCU freshman from Klein) are projected to be drafted their sophomore year (he will be draft eligible), he's not on your list. But he's certainly one of the top freshman guys we'll face this year.
Mark: Tweaked. And you are referring to Matt Purke, BTW. - MK
What's curious to me is why/how other schools get their signees that are drafted in the top 10 rounds to enroll and why/how WG at Rice hasn't had that happen really.
Also why so many (until last year I suppose) of our drafted juniors turn pro even after disappointing draft placements, whereas schools like ECU can get their draftees to come back for fourth seasons.
It can't be that the Rice school/program doesn't offer something relative to those others...
Talon: To your first point, I would argue that once prospects make it clear that they intend to enroll at Rice, their draft stock drops. No way Rendon doesn't go in the top 10 rounds if he doesn't make it clear that Rice is in his future, and even with that the Braves went well over slot with their final offer. And I find your complaint about Rice not getting players to return for their fourth seasons oddly timed considering Seastrunk, Sultzbaugh and Ojala returned despite being drafted last summer. - MK
MK, I'll take coaching, player development and character over pure talent any day of the week. We have a knack of recruiting diamonds in the rough, and guys who are not only very coachable, but who have already demonstrated the mental toughness required to overcome adversity and succeed at the college level. Sure, we haven't won that second national championship, but in the 6 years since 2003, we've been to Omaha 3 times, played in 5 Super-regionals, and have been national seed four times. And the only Top 200 prospects amongst our incoming Freshman over those 6 years, I believe, were Savery and perhaps Rendon. I'd rather have the guys be amongst the Top 200 prospects as Juniors than incoming Freshmen. Going into last season, no publication had Rendon as anywhere near the top of the 2011 draft board, but now he is either #1 or #2 on just about everybody's listings. J-Rod, CSC, Friday, Berry and Hague didn't appear on anyone's Top 200 list as incoming Freshman either.
One can only imagine the quality of team The OG and Coaches Taylor and Pierce can produce if we land all but Taillon on campus next Fall. I cannot wait to see!
Walt: I, like you, can not wait to see what these coaches can accomplish with presumably superior baseline talent. One has to wonder if the dynamic changes any when players more apt to spurn college for a pro contract flood the program. What makes this staff particularly effective is its ability to sign players who project to improve over time and who are coachable. The OG constantly refers to how Perrott, Ratterree, Spurlin and McDowell are attentive and receptive to teaching. Are superior prospects as open to instruction? I guess we'll find out soon enough. - MK
Again, MK, I think a very big part of the success of the coaching staff and the program is that we specifically seek out players during the recruitment process who are not only coachable, but who are mentally tough (which one needs to be given The OG's coaching old school coaching style). Yes, you cannot win without talent, but these latter two character traits-- which we seek out-- allows one to maximize that talent and their potential...and the will to win doesn't hurt either.
Walt: So the assumption is that, even if the staff takes more chances on prospects who are draft flight risks, those same prospects will have the humble attitude of the players that have made this program so successful the past decade-plus? That requires a strong ability to read the mental makeup of those prospects, an ability that I don't doubt Pierce, Taylor and The OG have. It's an interesting concept. - MK
BTW, MK, is there a reason you left John Simms off your list of highly regarded current commits for 2010 metriculation? Isn't he currently higher ranked than either Mason or Kubitza...and also, coincidentially, from the Woodlands? Esquivel and Mueller could also sneak into the Top 200 with a breakout senior season. As it stands now, even without Jamo, next year's incoming class could very well be Top 10 ranked nationally, and should Taillon somehow, miraculously, show up on campus, it would likely be consensus Top 3.
Walt: No reason. Some folks that I've talked to like Kubitza's size and upside while Mason was a Team USA teammate of Taillon's. From what I've learned Simms is probably a more polished pitcher at this stage, but he won't project like the others. I'm not saying that I believe all that, just echoing some of what I've heard/read. - MK
In a roundabout way, the economic times we're living in could be contributing to a trend of MLB teams not paying over slot as much for their draft choices. An example would be the Rangers and Matt Purke. If Tom Hicks' private equity fund were doing better, perhaps he could cough up the funds to bring Purke onboard. This seems to be the right time for the Owls to take a chance on these higher rated guys like Mason, Kubitza and Simms (Taillon is gone, folks). ....now we just hope that the unlimited pocketed Yankees don't draft them and pull a Brett Marshall or Carmen Angelini on us....although Angelini's replacement has turned out to be pretty stinkin good for us
MK,
What the list demonstrates to me is how irrelevant those lists are. It takes coaching AND talent to make it to as many CWS's as the Owls have.
I don't think its particularly surprising that the lists don't equate very well to on field success. As I understand it, the people that put together those lists see very few of the players on their list. Instead they rely on pro scouts. Pro scouts are trying to figure out how a HS kid might perform in MLB during his early to mid twenties. To me that evaluation is different than a college coach who is trying to figure out how a kid will do the next 3+ yrs. So I think the lists are put together by people that are interested in something different than on-field performance during the college years.
In my opinion we're getting excellent talent (based on ability to perform DURING college) and doing a superior job of coaching that talent. As good as our coaching is, I just don't we could be performing at an elite level year after year without excellent talent to work with. The staff does both well.
Rick Hague was number 41 out of highschool by Baseball America 2007. We wrote a letter to MLB Baseball asking not to be drafted.After the letter he fell out of the top 200.
WG can do anything. Give him the talent that is currently slated to come in this year, and he could beat half of the MLB clubs in a 7 game series!