As most of you know, I am disallowed to write specifically about recruits in this space, and given my attitude on the art of pursuing the fluctuating commitments of 17- and 18-year-old athletes, I'm not the least bit remorseful over my restrictions. That doesn't mean that I'm not paying rapt attention, with your reactions to the stream of commitments particularly interesting
David Bailiff is fond of stating that his goal is to craft superior recruiting classes each and every offseason, and few would disagree that he accomplished that mission with his first three classes. Only time will tell if his fourth class trumps the productivity/potential of his third, but place me on the side of the ledger somewhat doubtful of such a scenario ultimately unfolding.
By the close of the Season of Woe, a.k.a the 2009 campaign, the Owls had several true freshmen who had cracked the starting lineup, and even a blind man couldn't help but to notice the spotlight of stardom shining on RB Charles Ross, DB Phillip Gaines and DT Alex Lowry. DB Kevin Gaddis and LB Trey Briggs got their turns at bat, and so too did DB Corey Frazier and DE Cody Bauer. OL Bobby Janisch might one day represent the jewel of the Class of 2009 while a handful of redshirt freshmen flashed so much promise during practice that the justifiable reaction is to lustily and continually congratulate Bailiff for a job well done. Winning 10 games, including the Texas Bowl, in 2008 obviously bolstered the recruiting efforts, but if Bailiff proved one thing this offseason it's that he can recruit coming off a 10-loss season, too.
But how well? Of the 16 athletes committed to Rice with National Signing Day just over one week away, six are 3-star prospects. Five more are 2-star prospects, leaving the remaining five starless. Collectively, the group has 14 official offers from programs representing the six BCS conferences, a number that I can't quite figure out how to analyze.
If Bailiff can continually pluck recruits from the clutches of regional and like-minded BCS programs, Rice will develop into a consistent winner under his guidance. But are 14 BCS offers enough for your liking? Are you at all concerned that four commitments failed to net an offer from a program other than the Owls? Are these stats even merited in any sense, or do systemic flaws within the recruiting rankings make it extremely difficult to judge classes across the board?
By massaging his relationship with the Texas High School Coaches Association and selling the value of a Rice degree with earnestness and zeal, Bailiff has become a recruiting force in Conference USA. But if you consider the Class of 2010 potentially more productive than the overwhelmingly impressive Class of 2009, support for your contention would be appreciated.
David Bailiff is fond of stating that his goal is to craft superior recruiting classes each and every offseason, and few would disagree that he accomplished that mission with his first three classes. Only time will tell if his fourth class trumps the productivity/potential of his third, but place me on the side of the ledger somewhat doubtful of such a scenario ultimately unfolding.
By the close of the Season of Woe, a.k.a the 2009 campaign, the Owls had several true freshmen who had cracked the starting lineup, and even a blind man couldn't help but to notice the spotlight of stardom shining on RB Charles Ross, DB Phillip Gaines and DT Alex Lowry. DB Kevin Gaddis and LB Trey Briggs got their turns at bat, and so too did DB Corey Frazier and DE Cody Bauer. OL Bobby Janisch might one day represent the jewel of the Class of 2009 while a handful of redshirt freshmen flashed so much promise during practice that the justifiable reaction is to lustily and continually congratulate Bailiff for a job well done. Winning 10 games, including the Texas Bowl, in 2008 obviously bolstered the recruiting efforts, but if Bailiff proved one thing this offseason it's that he can recruit coming off a 10-loss season, too.
But how well? Of the 16 athletes committed to Rice with National Signing Day just over one week away, six are 3-star prospects. Five more are 2-star prospects, leaving the remaining five starless. Collectively, the group has 14 official offers from programs representing the six BCS conferences, a number that I can't quite figure out how to analyze.
If Bailiff can continually pluck recruits from the clutches of regional and like-minded BCS programs, Rice will develop into a consistent winner under his guidance. But are 14 BCS offers enough for your liking? Are you at all concerned that four commitments failed to net an offer from a program other than the Owls? Are these stats even merited in any sense, or do systemic flaws within the recruiting rankings make it extremely difficult to judge classes across the board?
By massaging his relationship with the Texas High School Coaches Association and selling the value of a Rice degree with earnestness and zeal, Bailiff has become a recruiting force in Conference USA. But if you consider the Class of 2010 potentially more productive than the overwhelmingly impressive Class of 2009, support for your contention would be appreciated.
Ah, the ever present debate/argument. Can I mention names? (You can edit them out if that's not PC).
It's a difficult thing to judge, especially from year to year as Rivals' ratings scale ostensibly has changed. There are many more 3 stars ratings given out these days overall than in years past.
But I think there are some things about this class which support that it is a strong one beyond just the improved ratings. First, for such a small class, the proportion of players that were coveted by BCS programs is very high, probably the highest of the Bailiff classes. Second, the proportion of players that were all-state, or 1st team all-district or District MVPs is also quite high, probably the highest of Bailiff's classes. Third, I think some crucial needs were met in this class, things that had become apparent as misses in previous classes. For example the addition of a big, fast receiver in 6-5 ------ -----. The addition of 3 LB prospects with 4.5 range 40 times. The addition of a BIG running back (who still has 4.4 speed) in ------ --------- (6-2 215 already). Another glowing CB recruit (----- --------) that is prima facie on par or exceeding the great gets that Phillip Gaines and Kevin Gaddis have already revealed themselves to be. And two heavily recruited, nationally ranked by Rivals, safeties. One offering elite speed and recovery vs. the pass, and the other great size, reactions and tackling vs. the run (------- and ----- respectively).
That being said, there are some areas of doubt. One which I know everybody agrees with is that there is only one true DT in the class. He may yet prove to be a great one, but most I think wanted to see at least 2 true DTs in this class. Also, the Rice staff has yet to beat out BCS offers in bringing a wide receiver or tight end to campus (despite efforts), and in a pass heavy offense, that is a bit concerning. One would think the addition of David Beaty will turn that around next recruiting cycle.
Regarding the 4 players without other offers, it is important to note that two of those (------- and ---------) are two of the higher regarded players in this class. -------- being widely regarded as the best player on ---- ------' 4A title team, and with the stats to back it up. And both committed early in the process (pre-season) and then completely shutdown their recruiting thereafter.
I have observed that rivals stars, at least for Rice players, are not very good predictors of success. It's also difficult to compare them year-to-year, since this year there are more 3-star prospects overall than in previous years. No stars doesn't mean bad prospect, it means he has not been evaluated yet.
Other offers can be informative but tricky. The database, while a good guide, is not always 100% accurate. Some of our early commits probably could have other offers if they had wanted them. Most coaches like to say they get most of who they want, so if one of our guys tells another coach he is absolutely not interested, then the other coach will probably not make an official offer.
Highlight reels: also tricky. Even a guy headed to FCS and D2 can pick out 10 plays that make him look pretty good. The plays that aren't shown are probably more telling.
IMO the best we can do is to look at a combination of on-field production and combine performances. (Heights, weights, and 40 times tend to be fiction unless verified by an unbiased source.) Accolades like All-State or District MVP are a positive. Work ethic and attitude are tremendously important but impossible for us to identify.
I like this class, but it's always tough to tell until they get on the field at this level. Most years will have some surprises and some disappointments. The '08 class has not overwhelmed; last year's looks fantastic. But I think these guys can be good.
I think the only objective way to measure a recruiting class is by examining which schools Rice is beating out for recruits. In other words, are we winning recruiting battles against other teams. Despite knee-jerk reactions to Youtube clips of a player dominating 15-18 year olds, you can't judge a player based on a highlight reel or a 40-time (usually his all time best is reported). It's also tough to judge them by performances at camps and in games, because neither are college-game substitutes. So you are left with only one objective measure and that is whether or not you are winning heads-up battles against other teams for players. Even this is imperfect, but it's probably the best we've got.
Recruiting is an inexact science as everyone knows. I think Rice's top rated recruit in the last 20 years was Adam Zylman, a top-30 state DL recruit who was an okay but not spectacular player at Rice before injuries prematurely ended his career. Conversely, some of Rice's greatest players weren't top 100 types.
I'd prefer to wait and see in person what I think of the signees.
But I do have a question now. We were supposed to sign 13 or so and now it appears we're going to sign a few more than that. Does that mean we've lost some current scholarship players for a variety of reasons (academics, injuries, transfers, etc.)? If so, any names to report?
mark: Broderick Jackson has transferred to SFA, so that opened up one scholarship. I am left to assume that a couple signees will grayshirt. - MK
MK,
Several of the *unrated* recruits are unrated because Rivals does not have film on them. Without mentioning names, I'm sure you can figure out who they are. Also, a few 2* guys have enough statistics and accolades to merit 3* minimum. Make no mistake, this is a great class that will bear out Bailiff's confidence in them on the field for years to come. And ultimately, that will be the best way to judge recruiting success.
I don't think you can measure a recruiting class by anything but results... and of course, results are relative.
When you haven't won 5 games in a decade or more and a particular class wins 5+ twice during their eligibility, that is a good class. Given some recent success, I'd say that winning 7+ games twice would be a good class... 3 times a great class and 4 times a superb class.
Part of being a great class is making those in front of you better as a freshman... or playing in their place... It also involves making those around you better, whether they are in your class or not... so I don't think measuring wins... or taking a team to new heights or levels of consistency... is an inappropriate measure of a class.
"stars" are a nice attempt to measure ability, but not potential or the "team" value... they also don't win a single game.
Big picture: ask me in 4 years.
Short term: I have no reason to distrust DB, plus I tend to be optimistic anyway.
Last thing: Talon, can you repost this with names on the Parliament?