optimistic [op-tuh-mis-tik]
-adjective
1. disposed to take a favorable view of events or conditions and to expect the most favorable outcome.
The OG discussed who had done what, who was capable of doing more, and how it all could fit together. He outlined probabilities and potential and productivity, drawing parallels to seasons past as to provide additional support for his argument. By the time he was finished tossing about names and scouting reports on the members of his pitching staff, it felt as though The OG had led the way on some metaphysical journey. And, just in case there was any doubt that he had done precisely that, he reinforced his prevailing philosophy of seeing every campaign through an optimistic lens. Perhaps the unyielding belief that things will ultimately work out in the end explains in part why the Owls have thrived under his leadership.
If The OG can't allay your concerns over the relative inexperience of his staff, he is always willing to provide statistical data that his abundant positivity isn't the least but unfounded. In ways relative to his pitchers, the run-up to the 2010 season mirrors the offseason between the 2001 and 2002 campaigns. First, let's examine what the Owls lost between last year and this upcoming season, and compare staff turnover to the attrition the Owls suffered following 2001:
KEY LOSSES FROM 2001
SP Kenny Baugh (13-2, 2.17 ERA, 141.1 IP, .203 BAA, 1.13 WHIP)
SP Jon Skaggs (9-4, 2.65 ERA, 119 IP, .209 BAA, 1.27 WHIP)
RP Philip Barzilla (3-4, 3.17 ERA, 10 saves, .269 BAA, 1.35 WHIP)
KEY LOSSES FROM 2009
SP Ryan Berry (7-2, 2.42 ERA, 81.2 IP, .195 BAA, 0.92 WHIP)
*SP Mike Ojala (5-0, 2.17 ERA, 66.1 IP, .249 BAA, 1.31 WHIP)
RP Jordan Rogers (8-3, 4.33 ERA, 7 saves, .209 BAA, 1.26 WHIP)
*Ojala will miss, at minimum, the first six weeks of the 2010 season following elbow surgery
The Owls entered the 2002 season seeking to replace their top two starters and ace reliever. Steven Herce, fourth on the '01 staff in innings, and Justin Crowder, a TCU transfer, were thrust into the weekend rotation without having previously establishing the credentials for the responsibility. A quick comparison of their 2001 and '02 numbers reveals that the duo did OK:
Herce (2001): 6-1, 2.37 ERA, .238 BAA, 1.20 WHIP, 68.1 IP
Herce (2002): 13-3, 2.79 ERA, .236 BAA, 1.08 WHIP, 119.1 IP
Crowder (2001 w/TCU): 7-6, 4.81 ERA, .306 BAA, 1.54 WHIP
Crowder (2002 w/Rice): 10-3, 2.00 ERA, .239 BAA, 1.17 WHIP
Herce and Crowder not only proved up to the challenge of pitching on the weekend for Rice (LSU would surely agree), a trio of unheralded freshmen - Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend - plus another transfer - David Aardsma - managed well enough to lead the Owls to Omaha that year. Considering the question marks The OG had concerning his staff entering that season, a 52-14 finish and College World Series berth were as optimistic a set of results as anyone could have imagined. All of which begs the query: Can Rice do that in 2010?
In a sense, the Owls are better positioned for a successful run compared to 2002. Playing the role of Herce is So. LHP Taylor Wall (7-6, 3.72 ERA, 94.1 IP, .243 BAA, 1.27 WHIP), who is arguably a more accomplished pitcher than Herce was entering '02. Jr. LHP Tony Cingrani is Crowder, a South Suburban College (South Harbor, Ill.) transfer whose track record inspires faith in his ability to handle a weekend assignment. And instead of relying on true freshmen, The OG can fall back on Sr. RHP Jared Rogers and RS Fr. RHP Anthony Fazio to help carry the load as starters. Backing up that quartet are Jr. RHP Boogie Anagnostou, So. RHP Matthew Reckling and Fr. RHP Tyler Duffey. Excluding Wall, there are concerns aplenty.
Cingrani, Fazio, Anagnostou and Duffey are unproven as Division I pitchers, while Rogers and Reckling were a combined 6-3 with a 6.01 ERA over 82.1 IP in 2009. The OG is exhibiting trust in allowing those six pitchers to anchor his staff, and he is extending similar credit to Jr. LHP Doug Simmons, whose dominant fall was a stark contrast to his undistinguished freshman and sophomore seasons. Simmons and Anagnostou will enter the preseason as top relief options with Reckling, Duffey and Jr. LHPs Matt Evers and Abe Gonzales expected to round out the bullpen. Sr. RHP Mark Haynes should fit into the picture and so could So. RHP Andrew Benak and Fr. LHP Holt McNair, but by and large this is a staff seeking ascencion rather than a repeat of past performances because for most, the spotlight is unfamiliar. For Fr. RHPs and relievers Chase McDowell, Tyler Spurlin and J.T. Chargois, it's uncharted territory.
"That's one reason not only has (Rice assistant coach) David (Pierce) been allowed to completely concentrate on pitching but I've spent a lot of time down there (in the bullpen) too," The OG said. "That's been our area of concentration.
"By focusing on what we need to do - and David and I have been completely consistent - I think we have a chance to get these guys really pitching well. We'll see."
The OG is convinced that the message of what the staff needs to execute in order to succeed was presented with clarity and imprinted with precision last fall. His confidence in what his pitchers absorbed, combined with an offense and defense superior to that showcased in 2002, should net a result similar to that from eight years ago. Of course, The OG is being optimistic.
-adjective
1. disposed to take a favorable view of events or conditions and to expect the most favorable outcome.
The OG discussed who had done what, who was capable of doing more, and how it all could fit together. He outlined probabilities and potential and productivity, drawing parallels to seasons past as to provide additional support for his argument. By the time he was finished tossing about names and scouting reports on the members of his pitching staff, it felt as though The OG had led the way on some metaphysical journey. And, just in case there was any doubt that he had done precisely that, he reinforced his prevailing philosophy of seeing every campaign through an optimistic lens. Perhaps the unyielding belief that things will ultimately work out in the end explains in part why the Owls have thrived under his leadership.
If The OG can't allay your concerns over the relative inexperience of his staff, he is always willing to provide statistical data that his abundant positivity isn't the least but unfounded. In ways relative to his pitchers, the run-up to the 2010 season mirrors the offseason between the 2001 and 2002 campaigns. First, let's examine what the Owls lost between last year and this upcoming season, and compare staff turnover to the attrition the Owls suffered following 2001:
KEY LOSSES FROM 2001
SP Kenny Baugh (13-2, 2.17 ERA, 141.1 IP, .203 BAA, 1.13 WHIP)
SP Jon Skaggs (9-4, 2.65 ERA, 119 IP, .209 BAA, 1.27 WHIP)
RP Philip Barzilla (3-4, 3.17 ERA, 10 saves, .269 BAA, 1.35 WHIP)
KEY LOSSES FROM 2009
SP Ryan Berry (7-2, 2.42 ERA, 81.2 IP, .195 BAA, 0.92 WHIP)
*SP Mike Ojala (5-0, 2.17 ERA, 66.1 IP, .249 BAA, 1.31 WHIP)
RP Jordan Rogers (8-3, 4.33 ERA, 7 saves, .209 BAA, 1.26 WHIP)
*Ojala will miss, at minimum, the first six weeks of the 2010 season following elbow surgery
The Owls entered the 2002 season seeking to replace their top two starters and ace reliever. Steven Herce, fourth on the '01 staff in innings, and Justin Crowder, a TCU transfer, were thrust into the weekend rotation without having previously establishing the credentials for the responsibility. A quick comparison of their 2001 and '02 numbers reveals that the duo did OK:
Herce (2001): 6-1, 2.37 ERA, .238 BAA, 1.20 WHIP, 68.1 IP
Herce (2002): 13-3, 2.79 ERA, .236 BAA, 1.08 WHIP, 119.1 IP
Crowder (2001 w/TCU): 7-6, 4.81 ERA, .306 BAA, 1.54 WHIP
Crowder (2002 w/Rice): 10-3, 2.00 ERA, .239 BAA, 1.17 WHIP
Herce and Crowder not only proved up to the challenge of pitching on the weekend for Rice (LSU would surely agree), a trio of unheralded freshmen - Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend - plus another transfer - David Aardsma - managed well enough to lead the Owls to Omaha that year. Considering the question marks The OG had concerning his staff entering that season, a 52-14 finish and College World Series berth were as optimistic a set of results as anyone could have imagined. All of which begs the query: Can Rice do that in 2010?
In a sense, the Owls are better positioned for a successful run compared to 2002. Playing the role of Herce is So. LHP Taylor Wall (7-6, 3.72 ERA, 94.1 IP, .243 BAA, 1.27 WHIP), who is arguably a more accomplished pitcher than Herce was entering '02. Jr. LHP Tony Cingrani is Crowder, a South Suburban College (South Harbor, Ill.) transfer whose track record inspires faith in his ability to handle a weekend assignment. And instead of relying on true freshmen, The OG can fall back on Sr. RHP Jared Rogers and RS Fr. RHP Anthony Fazio to help carry the load as starters. Backing up that quartet are Jr. RHP Boogie Anagnostou, So. RHP Matthew Reckling and Fr. RHP Tyler Duffey. Excluding Wall, there are concerns aplenty.
Cingrani, Fazio, Anagnostou and Duffey are unproven as Division I pitchers, while Rogers and Reckling were a combined 6-3 with a 6.01 ERA over 82.1 IP in 2009. The OG is exhibiting trust in allowing those six pitchers to anchor his staff, and he is extending similar credit to Jr. LHP Doug Simmons, whose dominant fall was a stark contrast to his undistinguished freshman and sophomore seasons. Simmons and Anagnostou will enter the preseason as top relief options with Reckling, Duffey and Jr. LHPs Matt Evers and Abe Gonzales expected to round out the bullpen. Sr. RHP Mark Haynes should fit into the picture and so could So. RHP Andrew Benak and Fr. LHP Holt McNair, but by and large this is a staff seeking ascencion rather than a repeat of past performances because for most, the spotlight is unfamiliar. For Fr. RHPs and relievers Chase McDowell, Tyler Spurlin and J.T. Chargois, it's uncharted territory.
"That's one reason not only has (Rice assistant coach) David (Pierce) been allowed to completely concentrate on pitching but I've spent a lot of time down there (in the bullpen) too," The OG said. "That's been our area of concentration.
"By focusing on what we need to do - and David and I have been completely consistent - I think we have a chance to get these guys really pitching well. We'll see."
The OG is convinced that the message of what the staff needs to execute in order to succeed was presented with clarity and imprinted with precision last fall. His confidence in what his pitchers absorbed, combined with an offense and defense superior to that showcased in 2002, should net a result similar to that from eight years ago. Of course, The OG is being optimistic.
MK - thanks for the valuable pitching info. I think all of us diehard fans can agree that is the area that we're all very curious to see how it plays out. Are we giving Wall too much credit coming into the season? He was 7-6 last year with a fairly pedestrian ERA. I think he still has a lot to prove this season, and I think Herce's 2001 numbers are easily better than the Wall '09 vintage.
I just want to see strike-throwers. With our defense and hitting, we'll be in games as long as we're not giving away free passes. Let's pitch to contact and make the plays in the field and we'll be well positioned to make a deep run come June.
wheredidmypantsgo: Regarding Wall, I don't think we're giving him too much credit. He learned to pitch with greater efficiency (read: stopped falling behind in the count) later in the season to positive results, and given that he was a starter from Day 1, his innings far surpassed the total Herce posted in 2001 when he started seven of the 17 games he appeared in. Wall has the stuff/makeup to be a solid ace. - MK
Great stuff, MK. However, as I've mentioned before, I think the more appropriate pitching staff comparison should be with 2005; not 2002. The ONLY returning pitchers entering 2005 were Degerman (who was the primary reliever in 2004) and Hale. Taylor Wall plays the role of Degerman, but with far more starter experience, and Cingrani plays the role of Josh Geer. Anthony Fazio (despite being a redshirt vs. true Freshman) plays the role of highly touted Joe Savery. And while this year's incoming class has a similar wealth of newcomer arms as that now legendary 2005 class (Cingrani, Boogie A., Duffy, McDowell, Chargois,Spurlin vs. Geer, CSC, Bell, Bramhall, Tacker), this year's team brings back far more experienced arms in Evers, Reckling, JaRogers, Benak, Haynes and Gonzales. The reason I like the 2005 comparison better is that I doubt this year's 8 - 10 deep staff is going to be as dominant as that 6-deep 2002 staff was....but the good news is that is likely will not have to be given the superiority (on paper) of the 2010 vs 2002 offense.
And in The OG and Coach Pierce we trust.
Walt: Your emphasis on 'only' is perhaps the reason why The OG viewed 2010 as a repeat of 2002 instead of 2005. The staff was almost completely gutted following the losses of the Big 3 plus Josh Baker, who accounted for 40 of the Owls' 46 wins in 2004; this roster returns plenty of pitchers (a half-dozen who worked fewer than 50 innings) who served in complimentary roles last season and could make an impact in 2010. Well, that's the hope. - MK
So you're saying we've got a chance?
Great stuff as always, MK -- keep it coming! February 19th cannot get here soon enough. How has Matt Evers looked so far -- is he returning to freshman form or still struggling? Are there any frontrunners for closer as of yet?
owl-1983: Keep an eye on SImmons and Duffey early on in the role of closer. Simmons had occasionally filthy stuff during the fall while Duffey just might have that 'it' needed to thrive in the job. As The OG noted, Duffey isn't one for shrinking in pressure-packed moments. In fact, he seems to relish those opportunities. - MK
A couple additional points/comments...
1. Most people-- even bigtime Owls fans-- didn't realize that both Wall and JaRogers were pitching through injuries for much of last season, and that most definately impacted their numbers. Despite that, both came on really strong late in 2009.
2. Very interesting to hear that The OG is considering Simmons and Duffey for the co-closer role. I would have thought Evers, Reckling and Anagnostau would have been the frontrunners. I also would have thought Duffey was in line for the second mid-week starter role behind Jay Rogers. If Doug Simmons is seriously in the discussion, it implies he's continued his strong showing during the past couple weeks of bullpen sessions. This is obviously GREAT news. Again, though largely unproven and unknown, I think this year's bullpen has the potential to be a real team strength (as opposed to it being the team's greatest shortcoming last season).
As Wheredidmypantsgo said above, so long as our pitchers throw strikes this season we should be in very good shape.
Walt: The OG isn't married to the idea of naming a closer at this stage. I asked and he threw Simmons and Duffey (and Boogie, too) out there, but nothing is set in stone. I certainly don't want to give that impression because that isn't the case. Are those three at the front of the line? Yes. Could the order in line change? Yep. - MK
Thanks for the update MK. Any news on Cingrani's improvement on holding runners? There may have been other things he was to work on, but it seemed to me that if this area improved, the Owls would again have found a good lefty from Chi-town.
13thOwl: That will be revealed during intrasquads. The pitchers have been working on individual stuff since the close of fall ball, so while I'm sure the coaching staff shared with Cingrani his need to improve in this particular area, he hasn't had many opportunities to put that suggestion into practice. He will beginning this weekend. - MK
So, is there a schedule for this weekend's intrasquads?
13thOwl: The Owls will hit the field at 2:30 on Friday and should start their intrasquad around 3:45 (scheduled to play six innings). As for Saturday and Sunday, start times are TBD due to forecasts for inclement weather. Midday starts are likely. - MK
Thanks for the optimism, MK. Also, I can't believe the times that some of these guys posted. Man... props to wheredidmypantsgo, Walt, and especially At Ease.